Housing Inventory Is Above 2019. What It Means for NYC
For the first time since 2019, more homes are for sale across the U.S. than in 2019: 1.15 million, up 5% from a year ago, according to Compass research published October 26, 2026. New York City is moving in the opposite direction. Manhattan's new listings just hit a 10-year third-quarter low, so NYC sellers still face far less competition than sellers in most of the country.
- Change from a year ago+5%
- Listings with a price cut43.1%
- Weekly pending sales vs. last year−16%
- Median pending sale price$392K
01
What does it mean that inventory is above 2019?
It means buyers nationally have more choice than at any point in the last six years. 2019 was the last normal market before pandemic-era demand drained supply, so crossing that line is a turning point. And it was still climbing in late October.
Demand hasn't caught up. Buyers are going into contract on about 64,000 homes a week, 16% fewer than last year on average, and the latest week was down 23%. Sellers are adjusting: 43.1% of listings have cut their price, just 0.1 points below the November 2022 peak. The median price of homes going into contract is $392,000, down 1.7% from a year ago.
02
Is New York seeing the same inventory build?
New York State is, but New York City's latest numbers show the opposite. Compass names New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois and Ohio among the Northeast and Midwest markets where inventory is building late in the year. In the five boroughs, Q3 2026 data still show supply shrinking.
Across the U.S.
- Inventory above 2019 for the first time
- Homes for sale up 5%
- 43.1% of listings cut their price
- Median pending price down 1.7%
In New York City
- Manhattan new listings at a 10-year Q3 low
- Manhattan active listings down 10.9%
- Queens active listings down 6.4%
- Manhattan median sale price up 4.6%
Year-over-year change. Sources: Compass research (October 26, 2026), Compass Manhattan Market Report Q3 2026 and Compass Queens Market Report Q3 2026.
03
Are NYC homes still selling close to asking?
Yes. Manhattan sellers gave up an average of 6% from list price in Q3 2026, down from 7% a year earlier, and Queens sellers gave up just 3% from their initial asking price. At the top of the market, Manhattan's $5 million-plus contracts have been signing at an average discount of 0% to 1% for the past three weeks, with 25 deals signed the week of October 26 to November 1.
U.S. | Manhattan | Queens | |
|---|---|---|---|
Supply vs. last year | +5% | −10.9% | −6.4% |
New listings vs. last year | – | −28.4% | −5.7% |
Median price | $392,000 | $1,250,000 | $735,000 |
Price change vs. last year | −1.7% | +4.6% | – |
Sales trend | Pending −16% | Closed +2.7% | Closed +1.2% |
U.S. figures are weekly as of late October 2026 (median price of homes going into contract). Manhattan and Queens figures are Q3 2026 closed sales and active listings.
04
What does this mean for buying or selling in NYC in 2027?
Nationally, 2027 is set to open with more homes on the market. In New York City, the opportunity depends on whether you're buying or selling.
If you're buying
- Don't expect national headlines to show up on Bleecker Street or Steinway Street. Manhattan and Queens supply is still shrinking.
- Look for homes that have sat. In Manhattan, 28% of Q3 sales took 180 or more days, and those sellers are the most open to negotiating.
- If you're also looking in New Jersey or upstate, you'll likely find more choice there than in the city.
If you're selling
- You're competing with fewer listings than sellers in most of the country, especially in Manhattan.
- Price it right from day one. Well-priced luxury homes are signing in weeks, while overpriced ones are sitting.
- Watch the Q4 numbers. If late-year inventory growth in New York State reaches the city, the window could narrow in 2027.
Frequently asked questions
Is housing inventory higher than 2019?
Yes, nationally. In late October 2026, unsold U.S. housing supply rose above 2019 levels for the first time since the pandemic, reaching 1.15 million homes, up 5% from a year earlier, according to Compass research.
Why does 2019 matter for the housing market?
2019 is widely treated as the last normal housing market before the pandemic. Inventory above that level means buyers nationally have more choice than at any point in the last six years.
Is inventory rising in New York City?
Not by the latest quarterly numbers. Manhattan had 6,028 active listings at the end of Q3 2026, down 10.9% from a year ago, and new listings hit a 10-year third-quarter low. Queens ended the quarter with just under 6,000 active listings, down 6.4%.
Are home prices falling because of higher inventory?
Nationally, prices are softening slightly: the median price of homes going into contract was $392,000, down 1.7% from last year, and 43.1% of listings have taken a price cut. In Manhattan, the median sale price rose 4.6% in Q3 2026 to $1,250,000.
Will 2027 be a better year to buy a home?
Nationally, 2027 is expected to start with more homes for sale than recent years, which usually means more negotiating room. In New York City, supply is still tight, so well-priced homes in good neighborhoods are still drawing competition.
Should I sell my New York home now or wait until 2027?
It depends on your home, your price point and your timing. With Manhattan inventory still near decade lows, sellers who price correctly are facing less competition than in most of the country. Contact Darrell Williams for a pricing analysis on your home.
Wondering how 2027 will affect your home's value or your search? Contact Darrell Williams for a private consultation, or view my Compass profile and listings.
